Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1281
· median 1281
· range 1233–1328
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1200
Q3 1358
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.1% | +7.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
